KARABÜK BULAK HAVZASINDA EN UYGUN SENTETİK BİRİM HİDROGRAF YÖNTEMİNİN BELİRLENMESİ
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Tarih
2023-07
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışma, Snyder, SCS, DSİ Sentetik, Mockus, Nakayasu ve Gama sentetik birim hidrograf metotları ile Karabük Bulak havzasının birim hidrografını elde etmeyi ve en uygun sentetik metodun tespitini amaçlamıştır. Elde edilen sentetik birim hidrografların doğruluğu, havzada 10-11 Ağu. 2021 tarihlerinde meydana gelen sağanak yağışın kaydı ve bu yağışın oluşturduğu akış görüntüleri kullanılarak kontrol edilmiştir. Havza çıkışında farklı zamanlarda gerçekleştirilen seviye ve debi ölçümleriyle seviye-debi regresyon ilişkisi kurulmuştur. Bu regresyon denklemi kullanılarak, resimlerde elde edilen seviyelere karşılık gelen debi değerleri tahmin edilmiştir. Ancak, yapılan tahminin yüksek akım seviyelerinde doğru sonuçlar vermediği anlaşılmıştır. Bu nedenle, akış görüntüleri kullanılarak Manning denklemi yardımıyla oluşan akış debileri hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca, her bir sentetik yöntem için bu yağış kayıtları kullanılarak beklenen akış hidrografları oluşturulmuş ve Manning denklemlerinden elde edilen akış değerleriyle karşılaştırılarak sentetik yöntemler arasında karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Yapılan karşılaştırmalar sonucunda, DSİ sentetik ve Mockus yöntemi en az farkla debi tahmininde bulunmuştur. Gözlenmiş olan pike ulaşma süresinin sentetik metotlarla yeterli doğrulukta tahmin edilemediği ancak beklenen pike ulaşma süresini, sentetik metotların daha kısa vermesi sebebiyle oluşabilecek taşkınlarda daha ihtiyatlı tahmin yapılmasına olanak verdiği görülmüştür. Elde edilen havzanın birim hidrografı, hidrolojik tasarımında su akışı ve taşkın risklerinin değerlendirilmesi, taşkın tahminlerinin yapılması, su kaynaklarının yönetimi, afet önleme çalışmalarında erken uyarı sistemleri ve hidrolojik süreçlerin analiz edilmesi gibi alanlarda katkıda bulunacağı düşünülmektedir.
This study aims to determine the optimal synthetic unit hydrograph method for the Karabük Bulak Basin. The Snyder, SCS, DSİ Synthetic, Mockus, Nakayasu, and Gamma methods were utilized for this purpose. The accuracy of the obtained synthetic unit hydrographs was verified by comparing them with rainfall records and flow images from a heavy rainfall event that occurred on August 10-11, 2021, in the basin. A stage-discharge relationship was established at the basin outlet through level and discharge measurements conducted at different times. Using this regression equation, discharge values corresponding to the obtained levels in the images were estimated. However, it was observed that the predictions did not yield accurate results at high flow levels. Hence, flow discharges resulting from the Manning equation were calculated using flow images. Additionally, expected flow hydrographs were generated for each synthetic method using the rainfall records, and a comparison was made among the synthetic methods by comparing the flow values obtained from the Manning equations. The comparison revealed that the DSİ Synthetic and Mockus methods provided the closest estimations of discharge, albeit with a small margin. Although the time to reach the observed peak was not accurately predicted by the synthetic methods, the fact that the synthetic methods yielded shorter expected peak arrival times allows for more cautious estimations in potential flood events. The obtained unit hydrograph of the basin is expected to contribute to various areas such as hydrological design for assessing water flow and flood risks, flood prediction, water resources management, early warning systems for disaster prevention, and analysis of hydrological processes."
This study aims to determine the optimal synthetic unit hydrograph method for the Karabük Bulak Basin. The Snyder, SCS, DSİ Synthetic, Mockus, Nakayasu, and Gamma methods were utilized for this purpose. The accuracy of the obtained synthetic unit hydrographs was verified by comparing them with rainfall records and flow images from a heavy rainfall event that occurred on August 10-11, 2021, in the basin. A stage-discharge relationship was established at the basin outlet through level and discharge measurements conducted at different times. Using this regression equation, discharge values corresponding to the obtained levels in the images were estimated. However, it was observed that the predictions did not yield accurate results at high flow levels. Hence, flow discharges resulting from the Manning equation were calculated using flow images. Additionally, expected flow hydrographs were generated for each synthetic method using the rainfall records, and a comparison was made among the synthetic methods by comparing the flow values obtained from the Manning equations. The comparison revealed that the DSİ Synthetic and Mockus methods provided the closest estimations of discharge, albeit with a small margin. Although the time to reach the observed peak was not accurately predicted by the synthetic methods, the fact that the synthetic methods yielded shorter expected peak arrival times allows for more cautious estimations in potential flood events. The obtained unit hydrograph of the basin is expected to contribute to various areas such as hydrological design for assessing water flow and flood risks, flood prediction, water resources management, early warning systems for disaster prevention, and analysis of hydrological processes."
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Sentetik birim hidrograf, Snyder, SCS, DSİ sentetik, Nakayasu, Mockus, Gama, Bulak havzası., Synthetic unit hydrograph, Snyder, SCS, DSİ synthetic, Nakayasu, Mockus, Gama, stage-discharge relationship, Bulak Basin.
