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    Do currency manipulations hurt US bilateral trade balance?
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2023) Aftab, Muhammad; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    Currency manipulations, the intentional intervention in the foreign exchange market by a country's government or central bank, have been a contentious issue in international trade. However, empirical evidence on the matter is scarce. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the effect of currency manipulations on the US bilateral trade balance with its major trading partners over a long-term period of 2000Q4 to 2020Q2. By using a novel currency manipulation index based on the US Treasury-defined variables and a combination of time series and panel cointegration approaches, this study uses a dataset of 21 major trading partners of the US. The analysis shows that currency manipulations have a statistically significant negative effect on the US bilateral trade balance with some country-level heterogeneity. The study provides new insights on the role of currency manipulations in international trade and implies that the findings have significant policy implications. By providing evidence of the detrimental effect of currency manipulations on trade balance, this study supports the argument for the need of international agreements and regulations to discourage such practices and promote fairness in global trade.
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    Russia's Trade With G7 Countries and Asymmetric J-Curve Effect
    (Wiley, 2024) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Aftab, Muhammad; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    This study investigates the relationship between exchange rates and trade balance, specifically focusing on Russia's trade dynamics with the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Employing a multifaceted approach, we scrutinize the asymmetric responses evident in the trade balance concerning fluctuations in exchange rates. Our investigation, rooted in linear analysis, initially reveals that rubble depreciation predominantly impacts the Russian trade balance adversely in the short term, albeit demonstrating a positive influence on trade balance in select instances over the long run-an observation aligned with the established J-curve phenomenon. However, as we transition to nonlinear analysis, our findings yield stronger substantiation for the J-curve hypothesis. Notably, our research underscores the asymmetric nature of exchange rate changes' effects on trade balance. Moreover, through nonlinear modeling techniques, we observe a pronounced enhancement in the convergence toward establishing a long-term relationship between these variables. This emphasizes the significance of nonlinear approaches in comprehending the complexities inherent in exchange rate-trade balance dynamics of Russian trade with G7.