Yazar "Aysan, Ahmet Faruk" seçeneğine göre listele

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    The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk
    (Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Polat, Ali Yavuz; Tekin, Hasan; Tunali, Ahmet Semih
    In recent years, geopolitical risk (GPR) has been a crucial factor in investment decisions and stock markets. Therefore, we explore the research on the GPR by employing bibliometric and scientometric analytical techniques. We find 366 scientific contributions in December 2021 from the Scopus database by searching 'Geopolitical risk' in abstracts, keywords, and titles. Our findings show that GPR research has gained momentum in the last three years. Specifically, the journal Defence and Peace Economics has one of the highest numbers of research and citation on GPR. Authors in Asia also dominate the GPR literature. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by presenting the existing research that may give new insights for prospective studies in GPR.
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    Bitcoin-specific fear sentiment matters in the COVID-19 outbreak
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2022) Polat, Ali Yavuz; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Tekin, Hasan; Tunali, Ahmet Semih
    Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of fear sentiment with a novel data set on Bitcoin's (BTC) return, volatility and transaction volume. The authors divide the sample into two subperiods to capture the changing dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The authors retrieve the novel fear sentiment data from Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices (TRMI). The authors denote the subperiods as pre- and post-COVID-19 considering January 13, 2020, when the first COVID-19 confirmed case was reported outside China. The authors use bivariate vector autoregressive models given below with lag-length k, to investigate the dynamics between BTC variables and fear sentiment. Findings BTC market measures have dissimilar dynamics before and after the Coronavirus outbreak. The results reveal that due to the excessive uncertainty led by the outbreak, an increase in fear sentiment negatively affects the BTC returns more persistently and significantly. For the post-COVID-19 period, an increase in fear also results in more fluctuations in transaction volume while its initial and cumulative effects are both negative. Due to extreme uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, investors may trade more aggressively in the initial phases of the shock. Practical implications The authors are convinced that the results in this paper have more far-reaching implications for other markets regulated by the states. BTC provides a natural benchmark to understand how fear sentiment drives and impacts the markets isolated from any interventions. Hence, the results show that in the absence of regulatory frameworks, market dynamics are likely to be more volatile and the fear sentiment has more persistent impacts. The authors also highlight the importance of using micro, asset-specific sentiment measures to capture market dynamics better. Originality/value BTC is not associated with any regulatory authority and is not produced by the governments and central banks. COVID-19 as a natural experiment provides an opportunity to explore the pure effects of market sentiment on BTC considering its decentralized and unregulated features. The paper has two main contributions. First, the authors use BTC-specific fear sentiment novel data set of TRMI instead of more general market sentiments used in the existing studies. Next, this is the first study to examine the association between fear and BTC before and after COVID-19.
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    Whether and when did bitcoin sentiment matter for investors? Before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
    (Springer, 2023) Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Mugaloglu, Erhan; Polat, Ali Yavuz; Tekin, Hasan
    Using a wavelet coherence approach, this study investigates the relationship between Bitcoin return and Bitcoin-specific sentiment from January 1, 2016 to June 30, 2021, covering the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results reveal that before the pandemic, sentiment positively drove prices, especially for relatively higher frequencies (2-18 weeks). During the pandemic, the relationship was still positive, but interestingly, the lead-lag relationship disappeared. Employing partial wavelet tools, we factor out the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and the Equity Market Volatility Infectious Disease Tracker index to observe the direct relationship between a change in sentiment and return. Our results robustly reveal that, before the pandemic, sentiment had a positive effect on return. Although positive coherence still existed during the pandemic, the lead-lag relationship disappeared again. Thus, the causal relationship that states that sentiment leads to return can only be integrated into short-term trading strategies (up to six weeks frequency).