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    The alternative version of J-curve hypothesis testing: Evidence between the USA and Canada
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Gocer, Ismet
    This study aims to eliminate an embedded data bias in testing the J-curve hypothesis in relevant literature. In all previous trade models about the J-curve, the bilateral trade balance (BTB) ratio, as the dependent variable, is generated and used based on total exports data, i.e. as total exports over total import. However, total exports are the sum of domestic exports and re-exports, and some countries also re-export to their partners. Furthermore, the dynamics and impacts of changing exchange rates on export volumes of domestically produced goods may differ from those on re-exported goods. Therefore, in this study, in testing the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, we, for the first time, re-define two new proposed forms of BTBs, namely, domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB and re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB, based on domestic exports and re-exports, respectively, for USA-Canada trade. The main finding shows that the numbers of industries that support the asymmetric J-curve concerning these two forms of BTBs are entirely different. While the J-curve is supported by domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 27 industries, it is supported by re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 38. This support is 22 for the total-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB.
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    The Bilateral USA-Mexico Trade Balances Under Decomposed Export Data
    (Springer, 2023) Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Doyran, Mine Aysen; Gocer, Ismet; Rarick, Charles A.; Mellon, John
    This study re-formulates and re-examines the traditional bilateral trade balance (TB) concept (ratio) in the USA-Mexico case using a different methodology. This re-examination is constructed on newly formulated decomposed-export-based TBs-namely, domestic-export-based TB and re-export-based TB. Since the undecomposed traditional total-export-based TB is expressed as a total export/import ratio, it may misrepresent the actual nature of bilateral trade of this country with Mexico because the USA also considerably re-exports to Mexico. The main empirical finding confirms the need for using decomposed-export-based TBs in trade models for the USA since the impacts of exchange rate and income on undecomposed and decomposed export-based TBs of the USA are entirely different. For example, while depreciation in the USD improves the re-export-based TB for only 13 commodities, the same change in the USD improves the domestic-export-based TB for 18. Some empirical inferences from findings are as follows: (i) Mexican consumers (MC) with a stronger Peso purchase US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones; (ii) MC with a weaker Peso stop purchasing US re-exported commodities more than the US domestically produced ones; (iii) MC are appreciated/depreciated-Peso-sensitive to US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones.
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    Food-based bilateral trade balance performances between the United States and Canada under COVID-19
    (Springer Int Publ Ag, 2023) Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Gocer, Ismet
    The food industry has been greatly impacted by COVID-19, causing governments to restrict food exports to prevent shortages. A negative food trade balance reveals a country's dependence on imports and underscores the significance of a sound food policy. Hence, for the first time, this study examines the J-curve hypothesis for the U.S. with Canada at the state rather than country level and creates maps based on the findings. The approach of this study differs from all empirical studies using country-level J-curve analyses, because the U.S. may require a state level analysis since its states differ in terms of economic-population sizes, tax rates, and administrative structures. For this aim, this study employs the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches. The results indicate that while only 8 out of 47 U.S. states support the food-based asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, 15 U.S. states support the asymmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Additionally, 9 U.S. states support the food-based symmetric J-curve hypothesis, and 2 U.S. states support the symmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Based on these results, policymakers of U.S. states where the J-curve hypothesis is not supported should review their food-based bilateral trade policies with Canada.
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    The hidden dynamics of the USA-Mexico trade relationship: a partial export data decomposition approach
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Karamelikli, Huseyin; Ongan, Serdar; Gocer, Ismet
    This study employs a unique methodology to uncover the hidden dynamics of the USA-Mexico trade relationship under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) agreement. The conventional bilateral trade balance (BTB) only considers total export data, which may need to be revised for testing the J-curve hypothesis since countries (such as the USA) also re-export to their partners (e.g., Mexico). To address this, the study decomposes total export data into re-export data and domestic export data and proposes two new forms of J-curve hypothesis testing: the partial-domestic-J-curve hypothesis BTB and the partial-re-export-J-curve hypothesis BTB. The study's empirical findings suggest that the partial methodology should be used for asymmetric J-curve hypothesis testing in the USA-Mexico trade. The findings also indicate that Mexican consumers are more sensitive to changes in the value of the peso for US domestic products than re-exported products, and they purchased more US domestic products than re-exported products during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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    The impacts of exchange rate on US adjusted bilateral trade balance with Germany under Brexit: A comparative analysis
    (Wiley, 2024) Ongan, Serdar; Gocer, Ismet; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    This study reveals the hidden dynamics of USA-Germany international trade through a revised J-curve hypothesis. It emphasizes the inadequacy of the traditional Bilateral Trade Balance (BTB) ratio based on total exports. To this aim, it introduces two new testing approaches based on adjusted BTB: the GDP-driven-BTB-based J-curve hypothesis (GDPJ) and the Non-GDP-driven-BTB-based J-curve hypothesis (NGDPJ). The empirical findings advocate the necessity of these alternative tests, offering policymakers more informative results than the traditional approach. GDPJ is validated for 13 goods, while NGDPJ and traditional methods are validated for 10 and 8 goods. These results underscore the risks of solely relying on the traditional approach. By embracing the revised J-curve hypothesis and alternative BTBs, policymakers can gain deeper insights into the USA-Germany trade relationship. One interpretation is that, under Brexit, German consumers reduce their purchases of re-exported goods more than domestically produced goods from the US.
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    The Necessity of New Versions of Bilateral Trade Balances and COVID-19: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach for the USA and Japan
    (Sage Publications India Pvt Ltd, 2023) Gocer, Ismet; Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikl, Huseyin; Rarick, Charles A.
    This study aims to reveal the need to reformulate new forms of Bilateral Trade Balances (BTBs) for a country rather than a traditional BTB. This is because the traditional BTB ratio, based on total exports and defined as the total exports/total imports ratio, cannot classify and quantify a BTB based on its economic impact content. It fails to classify because countries also export goods already imported (denotes re-export) besides exporting their domestic goods produced within the country (denotes domestic export). It also fails to quantify because, while domestic goods undergo a value-added process within a country, re-exported goods do not. In this context, for the first time, this study attempts to reformulate/reinvestigate new forms of BTBs as production-related BTB, based on domestic export and non-production-related BTB, based on re-export for the USA with Japan. Empirical findings confirm the necessity and cruciality of the proposed methodology in this study.JEL Codes: F10, F14
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    Production-Driven and Non-Production-Driven Bilateral Trade Balance: Assessing Trade Deficits between the United States and China and the COVID-19 Epidemic
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Karamelikli, Huseyin; Ongan, Serdar; Gocer, Ismet; Doyran, Mine Aysen
    This study aims to look deeper into the long-standing phenomenon of the United States' large trade deficits with China by examining both countries' bilateral trading structures (character). In this investigation, we, for the first time, redefine the traditional bilateral trade balance (BTB) ratio based on economic impact content as production-driven BTB (Xpd) and non-production-driven BTB (Xnpd). This is done because, while the former undergoes an economic activity within the United States, the latter doesn't. The traditional ratio, i.e. total export/total import, doesn't technically allow such an investigation. Hence, the proposed methodology of this study, using these two new forms of BTBs, may provide new perspectives to this phenomenon for U.S. policymakers. The main empirical finding may make it imperative to analyze the US BTB with China using the methodology proposed because the independent variables of the study's models have different effects on Xpd and Xnpd. For example, while real depreciation in the USD improves Xnpd for 13 industries, the same change in the USD improves Xpd for only seven. Additionally, this methodology allows U.S. policymakers to compare/review the US BTB based on economic impact contents through Xpd and Xnpd separately. Last, it can be interpreted that the United States benefits from decreasing trade-policy uncertainty in the United States.
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    The US State-Level Geographic J-curve Hypothesis Mapping with Canada
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2023) Ongan, Serdar; Gocer, Ismet; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    This study creates a US state-level asymmetric J-curve hypothesis testing map with Canada. The map may visually present how a US state policymaker manages bilateral trade balances with Canada. Green-colored US states support the evidence of the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, while red-colored and gray-colored states do not. The main empirical finding indicates that the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis is supported for only 15 US states and D.C., shown in green on the map. This suggests that policymakers of these US states may have more sustainable and manageable bilateral trade policies with Canada. If so, policymakers in red/grey US states should reevaluate their bilateral trade policy regulations, especially those related to taxation, budgetary frameworks, energy prices, and other relevant factors that can impact consumer-producer prices and thereby create competitive state-level real exchange rates. By doing so, they may achieve the anticipated positive outcomes of the J-curve effect to export more.
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    The US State-Level Wood Product-Based Bilateral Trade Balances with Canada Under the Protectionist US Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Economic Policy Uncertainty
    (Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Gocer, Ismet; Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    The US-Canada wood product trade is a longstanding dispute due to protectionist high-tariff policies, further exacerbated by COVID-19 restrictions on US production and exports. This study investigates the J-curve effect at the US state level, revealing that only 11 US states support the asymmetric J-curve for wood products, whereas 10 US states support the asymmetric inverse J-curve (shown in Appendix 2 online). Furthermore, high tariffs imposed by the US improved trade balances for only three states, implying that the high-tariff policy did not enhance the US wood-based trade balance with Canada.