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Öğe The alternative version of J-curve hypothesis testing: Evidence between the USA and Canada(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Gocer, IsmetThis study aims to eliminate an embedded data bias in testing the J-curve hypothesis in relevant literature. In all previous trade models about the J-curve, the bilateral trade balance (BTB) ratio, as the dependent variable, is generated and used based on total exports data, i.e. as total exports over total import. However, total exports are the sum of domestic exports and re-exports, and some countries also re-export to their partners. Furthermore, the dynamics and impacts of changing exchange rates on export volumes of domestically produced goods may differ from those on re-exported goods. Therefore, in this study, in testing the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, we, for the first time, re-define two new proposed forms of BTBs, namely, domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB and re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB, based on domestic exports and re-exports, respectively, for USA-Canada trade. The main finding shows that the numbers of industries that support the asymmetric J-curve concerning these two forms of BTBs are entirely different. While the J-curve is supported by domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 27 industries, it is supported by re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 38. This support is 22 for the total-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB.Öğe Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: evidence from G7(Springernature, 2023) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Niroomand, FarhangCurrent trend in applied research points at application of Shin et al.'s (2014) nonlinear ARDL approach to asymmetric error-correction modeling and asymmetric cointegration. Two studies in the literature have applied these approaches to assess the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on aggregate exports and imports of Asian and African countries, respectively. We add to this new literature by considering the experiences of G7 countries. We find that trade flows of almost all countries are affected by volatility asymmetrically in the short run. In the long run, while French and Italian exports are boosted by increased volatility, German exports are hurt. On the other hand, decreased volatility reduces French and Italian exports. As for G7 imports, increased exchange rate volatility hurts imports of Canada, Germany, France, Italy, and the U.K. in the long run and decreased volatility boosts their imports.Öğe Asymmetric effects of real exchange rate on inbound tourist arrivals in Malaysia: An analysis of price rigidity(Wiley, 2019) Karimi, Mohammad Sharif; Khan, Ashfaq Ahmad; Karamelikli, HuseyinPresent research is sought to analyse asymmetrical effects of exchange rates and income of tourists on tourist arrivals in Malaysia. A non-linear model has been formulated to examine symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of exchange rate quarterly data from year 2000 to 2017. Results have revealed that both depreciation and appreciation of domestic currency value lead to a decrease in number of inbound tourist arrivals at long run. Moreover, it is found that price rigidity in Malaysian tourism sector may influence decision of tourists to select alternative destination. Besides, reduction in the real-effective exchange rate does not have adverse effect in the long run.Öğe Asymmetric Impacts of the South Korean Currency on Korea's Commodity Trade Balance with Japan(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2022) Karamelikli, Huseyin; Ongan, SerdarThis study examines the asymmetric and symmetric impacts of appreciation and depreciation in the Korean won on Korea's commodity trade balance with Japan. To this aim, the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models are applied. However, this study methodologically differs from previous empirical studies in the related literature applying the NARDL model. These previous studies are constructed based on only short-run and long-run symmetry (denoted by SS) and short-run and long-run asymmetry (denoted by AA). This study, however, also considers two other alternative cases as short-run asymmetry-long-run symmetry (denoted by AS) and short-run symmetry-long-run asymmetry (denoted by SA).Öğe Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade(Springer, 2021) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinPrevious studies that have investigated the J-curve phenomenon between the UK and its largest trading partner from the European Union (EU), Germany, used aggregate bilateral trade data and found no support for the phenomenon. In this paper, we disaggregate the trade data by industry and investigate the symmetric as well as asymmetric J-curve hypothesis for each of the 95 2-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We found support for the symmetric J-curve effect in 12 industries, but support for the asymmetric J-curve effect 21 industries. Since the asymmetric approach required separating pound depreciation from appreciation, the approach also allowed us to identify industries that could benefit or be hurt from pound depreciation and those that could be hurt or benefit from pound appreciation.Öğe Asymmetric relationship between interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from Turkey(Wiley, 2022) Karamelikli, Huseyin; Karimi, Mohammad SharifThis paper deals with the dynamic relationship between the interest rate and exchange rate using the data from the Turkish economy. Macroeconomic variables possess both asymmetric and non-linear features; however, most of the empirical research relating to the dynamics of the exchange rate has been conducted only within a linear framework. Therefore, in this paper, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to explore asymmetrical relations in the long-run. The pieces of evidence provided in this article show that an increase in the domestic interest rate has a more robust effect on the exchange rate compared to a decrease of the interest rate. The results further indicate that the impact of the domestic interest rate in the short-run is different from their long-run effects. The linear models which neglect asymmetric relation can yield misleading results by showing no relationship between the two variables in the long-run. This paper shows that there is a robust and stable but asymmetric relationship between the interest rate and exchange rate in the long-run.Öğe The Bilateral USA-Mexico Trade Balances Under Decomposed Export Data(Springer, 2023) Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Doyran, Mine Aysen; Gocer, Ismet; Rarick, Charles A.; Mellon, JohnThis study re-formulates and re-examines the traditional bilateral trade balance (TB) concept (ratio) in the USA-Mexico case using a different methodology. This re-examination is constructed on newly formulated decomposed-export-based TBs-namely, domestic-export-based TB and re-export-based TB. Since the undecomposed traditional total-export-based TB is expressed as a total export/import ratio, it may misrepresent the actual nature of bilateral trade of this country with Mexico because the USA also considerably re-exports to Mexico. The main empirical finding confirms the need for using decomposed-export-based TBs in trade models for the USA since the impacts of exchange rate and income on undecomposed and decomposed export-based TBs of the USA are entirely different. For example, while depreciation in the USD improves the re-export-based TB for only 13 commodities, the same change in the USD improves the domestic-export-based TB for 18. Some empirical inferences from findings are as follows: (i) Mexican consumers (MC) with a stronger Peso purchase US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones; (ii) MC with a weaker Peso stop purchasing US re-exported commodities more than the US domestically produced ones; (iii) MC are appreciated/depreciated-Peso-sensitive to US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones.Öğe China's trade in services and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis(Elsevier, 2022) Xu, Jia; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinNearly all studies in the literature have assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows for goods. Service industries, however, have not received much attention. Two studies have assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on U.S. service trade with its partners. We add to this literature with a new study that assesses the symmetric and asymmetric effects of changes in the real effective rate of the yuan on China's trade in 11 service industries with the world. While we find short-run effects on imports and exports for almost all service categories, short-run effects last into long-run asymmetric effects in six Chinese importing service industries and eight Chinese exporting service industries. (c) 2022 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe China?s trade in services and asymmetric J-curve(Elsevier, 2022) Xu, Jia; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinAlmost all studies that tested the J-curve phenomenon, used trade data in only goods. Trade in service has received no attention until recently when one study tested the symmetric and asymmetric J-curve hypothesis using financial and insurance service data between the U.S. and its major partners. In this paper we add to this new literature by testing the symmetric and asymmetric J-curve effect using China's service trade with rest of the world. We find support for the J-curve effect in six out of 12 service industries, symmetric in some and asymmetric in some others.(c) 2022 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe Do currency manipulations hurt US bilateral trade balance?(Springer Heidelberg, 2023) Aftab, Muhammad; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinCurrency manipulations, the intentional intervention in the foreign exchange market by a country's government or central bank, have been a contentious issue in international trade. However, empirical evidence on the matter is scarce. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the effect of currency manipulations on the US bilateral trade balance with its major trading partners over a long-term period of 2000Q4 to 2020Q2. By using a novel currency manipulation index based on the US Treasury-defined variables and a combination of time series and panel cointegration approaches, this study uses a dataset of 21 major trading partners of the US. The analysis shows that currency manipulations have a statistically significant negative effect on the US bilateral trade balance with some country-level heterogeneity. The study provides new insights on the role of currency manipulations in international trade and implies that the findings have significant policy implications. By providing evidence of the detrimental effect of currency manipulations on trade balance, this study supports the argument for the need of international agreements and regulations to discourage such practices and promote fairness in global trade.Öğe Does energy usage reduction hinder economic performance?(Springer, 2023) Demir, Huseyin Utku; Karamelikli, HuseyinThis study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic development using yearly data from various demographic, economic, and geographic country groups worldwide. The study examines this link at both an aggregated and per-country basis to reduce potential bias. Additionally, the paper explores the possibility of an asymmetric effect between energy usage and economic performance. The results suggest that an increase in energy usage tends to boost economic output while a decrease in energy usage does not significantly impact most of the studied groups and countries. The findings are presented through maps and tabulated data for readers to visualize and explore in detail. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the link between energy consumption and economic performance, with the goal of determining whether an asymmetric effect exists. The data used in this study is comprised of yearly information from different demographic, economic, and geographic country groups worldwide. The methodology involves both aggregated and per-country analyses to reduce potential bias. The study finds that an increase in energy usage tends to boost economic output, while a decrease in energy usage does not significantly impact most of the studied groups and countries. The findings are presented visually through maps and in detail through tabulated data. The results of this study provide insight into the relationship between energy consumption and economic development and indicate the existence of an asymmetric effect. The study finds that an increase in energy usage tends to boost economic output while a decrease in energy usage does not significantly impact most of the studied groups and countries. The findings are presented through maps and tabulated data, which offer a visual representation of the results and allow for further exploration. Based on these findings, policymakers may consider promoting an increase in energy usage to stimulate economic growth. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of considering an asymmetric effect when examining the relationship between energy consumption and economic performance.Öğe Estimating a bilateral J-curve between the UK and the Euro area: An asymmetric analysis(Wiley, 2021) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinThe J-curve outlines the path of movement in the trade balance after a currency is devalued or depreciated, deteriorating in the short run but improving in the long run. One study in this journal investigated the concept between the UK and each of its 10 large partners from the EU. The study found support for the J-curve effect in the UK trade balance with Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Netherlands. However, the findings were based on sign misinterpretation. If correctly interpreted, the findings actually support the inverse J-curve, i.e., long-run deterioration in the bilateral trade balances. The results were based on using the linear ARDL approach. We revisit the issue and use the Nonlinear ARDL approach. We find support for the asymmetric J-curve effect in the bilateral trade balance between the UK and France, Greece, Portugal and Spain and an asymmetric inverse J-curve in the case of Finland.Öğe Exchange rate volatility and Japan-US commodity trade: An asymmetry analysis(Wiley, 2019) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinExchange rate volatility is said to affect trade flows in either direction. When increased volatility is separated from decreased volatility, asymmetric analysis reveals even more support for the fact that both increased volatility and decreased volatility affect trade flows in either direction. We add to this new literature by considering 57 industries that trade between Japan and the US. In addition to providing evidence of asymmetric response of their trade flows to a measure of exchange rate volatility, our approach identifies industries that could benefit from increased exchange rate volatility and those that could be hurt. Similarly, we identify industries that could benefit from decreased volatility and those that could be hurt. The overall conclusion is the adverse effects of dollar-yen volatility on the trade between the two countries.Öğe Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkey-US Commodity Trade: An Asymmetry Analysis(Economic Issues Education Fund, 2020) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinIn this paper we assess the symmetric and asymmetric effects of lira-dollar volatility on 56 2-digit industries that trade between Turkey and the US When a linear model was estimated, which assumes the effects to be symmetric, we found short-run effects of volatility on 23 Turkish exporting industries and 31 Turkish importing industries. Short-run effects lasted into the long-run in 6 exporting and 18 importing industries. However, when a nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run effects in 41 exporting and 42 importing industries which were asymmetric in all industries. Short-run effects translated into asymmetric long-run effects in 45 exporting and 22 importing industries.Öğe Exchange rate volatility and Turkish-German commodity trade: an asymmetry analysis(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2021) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinPurpose The purpose of this paper is to show that in some industries the linear model may not reveal any significance link between exchange rate volatility and trade flows but once nonlinear adjustment of exchange rate volatility is introduced, the nonlinear model reveals significant link. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) to assess asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows between Germany and Turkey. Findings This paper consider the experiences of 75 2-digit industries that trade between Turkey and Germany. When the study assumed the effects of volatility to be symmetric, the study found short-run effects in 31 (30) Turkish (German) exporting industries that lasted into the long run in only 10 (13) Turkish (German) exporting industries. However, when the study assumed asymmetric effects and relied upon a nonlinear model, the study found short-run asymmetric effects of volatility on exports of 55 (56) Turkish (German) industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 10 (25) Turkish (German) exporting industries. All in all, we found that almost 25% of trade is hurt by exchange rate volatility. Originality/value This is the first paper that assesses the possibility of asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on German-Turkish commodity trade.Öğe Financial and insurance services trade and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis(Elsevier, 2021) Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, HuseyinAlmost all studies in the trade literature have concentrated on the trade in goods. Recently, a study considered trade in two service industries (insurance and financial) between the U.S. and six of her trading partners and concluded that exchange rate changes have no significant effects on the U.S. service trade. Could such a finding be due to assuming the effects to be symmetric? We provide an affirmative answer by arguing and demonstrating that the effects of exchange rate on service trade could be asymmetric, which requires using nonlinear models. Once we estimate the nonlinear models, indeed we show that dollar depreciation and dollar appreciation have significant short-run and long-run effects on the U.S. inpayments from and outpayments to most of its partners in the two service industries. We attribute our new discoveries to the nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate. (C) 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe Food-based bilateral trade balance performances between the United States and Canada under COVID-19(Springer Int Publ Ag, 2023) Ongan, Serdar; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Gocer, IsmetThe food industry has been greatly impacted by COVID-19, causing governments to restrict food exports to prevent shortages. A negative food trade balance reveals a country's dependence on imports and underscores the significance of a sound food policy. Hence, for the first time, this study examines the J-curve hypothesis for the U.S. with Canada at the state rather than country level and creates maps based on the findings. The approach of this study differs from all empirical studies using country-level J-curve analyses, because the U.S. may require a state level analysis since its states differ in terms of economic-population sizes, tax rates, and administrative structures. For this aim, this study employs the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches. The results indicate that while only 8 out of 47 U.S. states support the food-based asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, 15 U.S. states support the asymmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Additionally, 9 U.S. states support the food-based symmetric J-curve hypothesis, and 2 U.S. states support the symmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Based on these results, policymakers of U.S. states where the J-curve hypothesis is not supported should review their food-based bilateral trade policies with Canada.Öğe The hidden dynamics of the USA-Mexico trade relationship: a partial export data decomposition approach(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Karamelikli, Huseyin; Ongan, Serdar; Gocer, IsmetThis study employs a unique methodology to uncover the hidden dynamics of the USA-Mexico trade relationship under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) agreement. The conventional bilateral trade balance (BTB) only considers total export data, which may need to be revised for testing the J-curve hypothesis since countries (such as the USA) also re-export to their partners (e.g., Mexico). To address this, the study decomposes total export data into re-export data and domestic export data and proposes two new forms of J-curve hypothesis testing: the partial-domestic-J-curve hypothesis BTB and the partial-re-export-J-curve hypothesis BTB. The study's empirical findings suggest that the partial methodology should be used for asymmetric J-curve hypothesis testing in the USA-Mexico trade. The findings also indicate that Mexican consumers are more sensitive to changes in the value of the peso for US domestic products than re-exported products, and they purchased more US domestic products than re-exported products during the COVID-19 pandemic.Öğe Impact of an economic development plan on regional disparities in Iran(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Karimi, Mohammad Sharif; Karamelikli, Huseyin; Heidarian, MaryamThis research develops a new multidimensional regional development and quality-of-life index for the provinces of Iran and uses it to examine the evolution of regional disparities during the 4th and 5th Five Year Plans. The new multidimensional development indicator involves the use of the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Shannon entropy to rank provinces and explore their trajectories. Although balanced and fair regional development is one primary objective of Iranian five-year plans, the results show that while all provinces have made progress, the two development plans have done little to diminish provincial development gaps, creating the need for a new targeted growth-pole strategy.Öğe The Impact of Sanctions Imposed by the European Union against Iran on their Bilateral Trade: General versus Targeted Sanctions(Cambridge Univ Press, 2022) Ghodsi, Mahdi; Karamelikli, HuseyinThe European Union (EU) has been using economic sanctions both as a foreign policy tool and as a liberal alternative to military action. Since 2006, it has been implementing general sanctions against the whole economy of Iran, affecting their trade relations, and since 2007, following the imposition of sanctions by the UN Security Council, it has also been using smart sanctions targeting Iranian entities and natural persons associated with the country's military activities. In a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, this paper investigates the impact of general and targeted EU sanctions against Iran on quarterly bilateral trade values between the 19 members of the euro area (EA19) and Iran between the first quarter of 1999 and the fourth quarter of 2018. In a robustness NARDL specification, trade between Iran and the 28 members of the EU is analysed. In addition, a gravity model of bilateral trade between Iran and the EU member states is run in a robustness check. The results indicate that the EU's general sanctions have strongly hampered trade flows between the two trading partners in almost all sectors, except for the primary sectors. Furthermore, our study finds that the impact of smart sanctions targeting Iranian entities and natural persons is much smaller than the impact of general sanctions on total trade values and the trade values of many sectors. Smart sanctions affect the exports of most sectors from the EA19 and the EU28 to Iran, while they are statistically insignificant for the imports of many sectors from Iran. Thus, this paper provides evidence of the motivations behind smart sanctions, which target specific individuals and entities rather than the whole economy, unlike general sanctions, which have a negative impact on ordinary people.
