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    Can we predict patients that will not benefit from invasive mechanical ventilation? A novel scoring system in intensive care: the IMV Mortality Prediction Score (IMPRES)
    (Tubitak Scientific & Technological Research Council Turkey, 2019) Ozlu, Tevfik; Pehlivanlar Kucuk, Mehtap; Kaya, Akin; Yarar, Esra; Kirakli, Cenk; Sengoren Dikis, Ozlem; Kefeli Celik, Hale
    Background/aim: The present study aimed to define the clinical and laboratory criteria for predicting patients that will not benefit from invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) treatment and determine the prediction of mortality and prognosis of these critical ill patients. Materials and methods: The study was designed as an observational, multicenter, prospective, and cross-sectional clinical study. It was conducted by 75 researchers at 41 centers in intensive care units (ICUs) located in various geographical areas of Turkey. It included a total of 1463 ICU patients who were receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) treatment. A total of 158 parameters were examined via logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors for mortality; using these data, the IMV Mortality Prediction Score (IMPRES) scoring system was developed. Results: The following cut-off scores were used to indicate mortality risk: <2, low risk; 2-5, moderate risk; 5.1-8, high risk; >8, very high risk. There was a 26.8% mortality rate among the 254 patients who had a total IMPRES score of lower than 2. The mortality rate was 93.3% for patients with total 1M PRES scores of greater than 8 (P < 0.001). Conclusion: The present study included a large number of patients from various geographical areas of the country who were admitted to various types of ICUs, had diverse diagnoses and comorbidities, were intubated with various indications in either urgent or elective settings, and were followed by physicians from various specialties. Therefore, our data are more general and can be applied to a broader population. This study devised a new scoring system for decision-making for critically ill patients as to whether they need to be intubated or not and presents a rapid and accurate prediction of mortality and prognosis prior to ICU admission using simple clinical data.
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    Mortality prediction ability of phycians in intensive care units of Turkey (MOPAP)
    (Turkish Assoc Tuberculosis & Thorax, 2020) Pehlivanlar Kucuk, Mehtap; Ozlu, Tevfik; Kucuk, Ahmet Oguzhan; Kaya, Akin; Kirakli, Cenk; Sengoren Dikis, Ozlem; Kefeli Celik, Hale
    Introduction: Intensive care physicians are increasingly involved in decision making about the prognosis of intensive care unit ICU patients. With this study; we aimed to evaluate the power of clinician foresight at prediction of mortality in patient at triage to intensive care and patient follow-up. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in ICUs located in various geographical regions of Turkey between January 1, 2017-April 30, 2017. The clinical research was planned as observational, multicenter, cross-sectional. Results: A total of 1169 intubated patients were followed in 37 different ICU. At the beginning of the follow-up we asked the physician who will follow the patient in the ICU to give a score for the probability of survival of the patients. Scoring included a total of 6 scores from 0 to 5, with the 0 the worst probability 5 being the best. According to this distribution, only 1 (0.9%) of 113 patients who were given 0 points survived. Three (6.1%) of 49 with the best score of 5 died. Survival rates were significantly different in each score group (r: -0.488; p< 0.001). After the combined mortality estimation scores based on the clinical observations of the physicians (0 and 1 point score was combined as non-survive, 4 and 5 score was combined as survived) 320 of the 545 patients were estimated to be dead and 225 were predicted survival. Sensitivity and spesifity of scoring system to predict mortality was 91.56% (95% Cl: 87.96-94.37), 76.89% (95% CI: 70.82-82.23) respectively. Conclusion: In this study, we concluded that the physicians who follow the patients in the ICU can predict the poor prognosis at the time of admission and the high mortality rate. The physician's opinion on mortality estimation should be considered in intensive care mortality scoring in addition to other laboratory and clinical parameters.