Investigation of wind energy potential of four different sites of libya by using weibull distribution
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Tarih
2021
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Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
In this study wind energy capacity of Libyan sites are Espiaa, Msallata, Alqatrun, and Adirsiyah has been assessed with the Weibull distribution. Three different methods of Weibull distribution that are the Empirical Method of Justus (EMJ), the Graphical Method (GM), and the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) was used. As a result, the best velocity estimation performance has been obtained with graphical and maximum likelihood methods. The power density estimation showed that the wind power potential of Msallata is best with the value of 444.743 W/m² power density at 60 m and in Espiaa is in the second order with 414.98 W/m² potentials. Alqatrun is in the third order with the 184.134 W/m² power density and the last one is Adirsiyah with 101.201 W/m² potentials. When ordered for an elevation of 20 m, the power density of Msallata was found 418.502 W/m², 414.873 W/m² at Espiaa, 137.736 W/m² at Alqatrun, and 77.993 W/m² at Adirsiyah. The maximum power potential was determined at Msallata and the minimum at Adirsiyah. To investigate the most appropriate statistical method that provides the closest values to the real results, variance (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and mean absolute error (MAE) values were calculated and assessed that at Adirsiyah, the best results were obtained with the GM method for a height of 20 m. This situation was evaluated with a calculated maximum R² of 0.9948 and minimum values of 0.0245, 0.00037 RMSE, and MAE. For Espiaa, the GM method was determined as the most appropriate method with 0.9984 R², 0.0186 RMSE, 1.23e-06 MBE, and 0.00033 MAE values. For Msallata, the EMJ method was determined as the best method with 0.9985 R², 0.0146 RMSE, 2,4e-07 MBE, and 0.00022 MAE. For 60 m altitude, the EMJ method gave the most compatible results with 0.9957 R², 0.0221 RMSE, and 0.00027 MAE values in Adirsiyah. In Alqatrun, the MLM method provided the closest results with 0.9979 R², 0.0151 RMSE, 2.63e-06 MBE, and 0.00024 MAE. The MLM method for Espiaa was determined as the most suitable method with 0.9988 R², 0.0163 RMSE, 1.21e-06 MBE, and 0.00029 MAE. For Msallta, the EMJ method was determined as the most suitable method with 0.9986 R², 0.0163 RMSE, 1.83e-07 MBE, and 0.00019 MAE.
Açıklama
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Kaynak
Konya mühendislik bilimleri dergisi (Online)
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Cilt
9
Sayı
3
