Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ödemeler Bilançosu Dengesi Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği
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2022-12-28
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ödemeler bilançosu dengesi (açığı) üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Literatürde en çok kullanılan değişkenlerden olan ihracat ve ithalat verileri de kontrol değişken olarak modele dahil edilmişlerdir. Çalışma 1974-2019 yılları aralığını kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada ilgili dönemde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile ödemeler bilançosu dengesi arasındaki ilişki zaman serisi kapsamında Johansen eşbütünleşme testi, FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre, modelde kullanılan tüm değişkenler (doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ödemeler bilançosu dengesi, ihracat ve ithalat) birinci farkta durağan çıkmaktadır. Uygun gecikme uzunluğu seçimi için elde edilen sonuçlar incelendiğinde LR, FPE, SC ve HQ kriterlerine göre 1 gecikmenin uygun olduğu saptanmıştır. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını belirlemek amacıyla yapılan Johansen eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre uzun dönemli bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme katsayılarının tahminine ilişkin yapılan FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR testleri sonucunda doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ödemeler bilançosu dengesi üzerinde olumlu etkiye sahip olduğu saptanmıştır.
This study examines the effects of foreign direct investments on the balance of payments (deficit) in Turkey. Export and import data, which are among the most used variables in the literature, are also included in the model as control variables. The study covers the period of 1974-2019. In the study, the relationship between foreign direct investments and balance of payments balance in the relevant period was analyzed with Johansen cointegration test, FMOLS, DOLS and CCR tests within the scope of time series. The results show that, the first differences of all variables used in the model including foreign direct investment (FDI), balance of payments (CAB), Exports (EXP) and Imports (IMP) are stationary. According to the FPE, SC and HQ criteria, 1 lag was found to be appropriate. A long-term relationship was determined in the results of the Johansen cointegration test, which was conducted to determine the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables. On the other hand, as a result of FMOLS, DOLS and CCR tests performed for the estimation of long-term cointegration coefficients, a direct relationship was identified. Finally, it has been determined that foreign investments have a positive effect on the balance of payments."
This study examines the effects of foreign direct investments on the balance of payments (deficit) in Turkey. Export and import data, which are among the most used variables in the literature, are also included in the model as control variables. The study covers the period of 1974-2019. In the study, the relationship between foreign direct investments and balance of payments balance in the relevant period was analyzed with Johansen cointegration test, FMOLS, DOLS and CCR tests within the scope of time series. The results show that, the first differences of all variables used in the model including foreign direct investment (FDI), balance of payments (CAB), Exports (EXP) and Imports (IMP) are stationary. According to the FPE, SC and HQ criteria, 1 lag was found to be appropriate. A long-term relationship was determined in the results of the Johansen cointegration test, which was conducted to determine the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables. On the other hand, as a result of FMOLS, DOLS and CCR tests performed for the estimation of long-term cointegration coefficients, a direct relationship was identified. Finally, it has been determined that foreign investments have a positive effect on the balance of payments."
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Ödemeler Bilançosu Dengesi, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR., Foreign Direct Investment, Balance of Payments, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR.
