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    China's trade in services and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis
    (Elsevier, 2022) Xu, Jia; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    Nearly all studies in the literature have assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows for goods. Service industries, however, have not received much attention. Two studies have assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on U.S. service trade with its partners. We add to this literature with a new study that assesses the symmetric and asymmetric effects of changes in the real effective rate of the yuan on China's trade in 11 service industries with the world. While we find short-run effects on imports and exports for almost all service categories, short-run effects last into long-run asymmetric effects in six Chinese importing service industries and eight Chinese exporting service industries. (c) 2022 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    China?s trade in services and asymmetric J-curve
    (Elsevier, 2022) Xu, Jia; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    Almost all studies that tested the J-curve phenomenon, used trade data in only goods. Trade in service has received no attention until recently when one study tested the symmetric and asymmetric J-curve hypothesis using financial and insurance service data between the U.S. and its major partners. In this paper we add to this new literature by testing the symmetric and asymmetric J-curve effect using China's service trade with rest of the world. We find support for the J-curve effect in six out of 12 service industries, symmetric in some and asymmetric in some others.(c) 2022 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on China's bilateral trade with its major partners
    (Elsevier, 2022) Xu, Jia; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    Following recent advances in asymmetric impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, we assess the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on China's bilateral trade with each of its 21 trading partners. We find symmetric effects in only a few bilateral trade models. However, the asymmetric analysis which required using nonlinear models revealed short-run asymmetric effects in almost all export and import demand models and log-run significant asymmetric effects in 50% of the models. In almost all models, while increased volatility was found to hurt Chinese trade, decreased volatility was found to boost them, implying that stable exchange rate is beneficial for China's trade.(c) 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    On the link between US-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: An asymmetric analysis
    (Wiley, 2022) Xu, Jia; Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, Huseyin
    Previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Chinese trade flows reported mixed findings. They all have assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of asymmetric effects of the real yuan-dollar volatility on the trade flows of 84 2-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We show that estimating asymmetric and nonlinear models for each industry yields much more significant outcomes than estimating symmetric and linear models. We find that trade flows of 2/3rd of industries are affected asymmetrically in the short run. Short-run effects last into asymmetric adverse long-run effects in 35 U.S. exporting industries (with export share of 45%) to China and in 44 Chinese exporting industries (with 76% export share) to the U.S. Since increased volatility hurts a significant share of both countries' exports, a stable yuan-dollar rate as well as inflation rate will benefit both countries in the long run.