On the link between US-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: An asymmetric analysis
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2022
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Wiley
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
Previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Chinese trade flows reported mixed findings. They all have assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of asymmetric effects of the real yuan-dollar volatility on the trade flows of 84 2-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We show that estimating asymmetric and nonlinear models for each industry yields much more significant outcomes than estimating symmetric and linear models. We find that trade flows of 2/3rd of industries are affected asymmetrically in the short run. Short-run effects last into asymmetric adverse long-run effects in 35 U.S. exporting industries (with export share of 45%) to China and in 44 Chinese exporting industries (with 76% export share) to the U.S. Since increased volatility hurts a significant share of both countries' exports, a stable yuan-dollar rate as well as inflation rate will benefit both countries in the long run.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
asymmetric analysis, China, commodity trade, exchange rate uncertainty, the United States, F14, F31
Kaynak
Australian Economic Papers
WoS Q Değeri
Q3
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
Cilt
61
Sayı
1
