On the link between US-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: An asymmetric analysis

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dc.authoridKaramelikli, Huseyin/0000-0001-7622-0972
dc.authoridBahmani-Oskooee, M/0000-0002-8242-7715
dc.contributor.authorXu, Jia
dc.contributor.authorBahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
dc.contributor.authorKaramelikli, Huseyin
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-29T16:04:32Z
dc.date.available2024-09-29T16:04:32Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentKarabük Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractPrevious studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Chinese trade flows reported mixed findings. They all have assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of asymmetric effects of the real yuan-dollar volatility on the trade flows of 84 2-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We show that estimating asymmetric and nonlinear models for each industry yields much more significant outcomes than estimating symmetric and linear models. We find that trade flows of 2/3rd of industries are affected asymmetrically in the short run. Short-run effects last into asymmetric adverse long-run effects in 35 U.S. exporting industries (with export share of 45%) to China and in 44 Chinese exporting industries (with 76% export share) to the U.S. Since increased volatility hurts a significant share of both countries' exports, a stable yuan-dollar rate as well as inflation rate will benefit both countries in the long run.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1467-8454.12241
dc.identifier.endpage137en_US
dc.identifier.issn0004-900X
dc.identifier.issn1467-8454
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85117514953en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2en_US
dc.identifier.startpage87en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12241
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14619/6187
dc.identifier.volume61en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000710278600001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.ispartofAustralian Economic Papersen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectasymmetric analysisen_US
dc.subjectChinaen_US
dc.subjectcommodity tradeen_US
dc.subjectexchange rate uncertaintyen_US
dc.subjectthe United Statesen_US
dc.subjectF14en_US
dc.subjectF31en_US
dc.titleOn the link between US-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: An asymmetric analysisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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